It is very disappointing to read Andrew Sullivan these days. In order to take revenge on George Bush for the FMA, he has wholeheartedly joined the chorus of Bush-bashing on the post-war management in Iraq, and is passing it off as fearless objectivity. Invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam Hussein was a huge gamble. Leaving him in power would have been an even bigger gamble. The risk had to be taken, and it had to be taken now. Andrew agrees with that part, but is now horrified that the aftermath is not all neat and tidy and predictable.
It was impossible to predict all of the post-war scenarios that have unfolded. Could we have known in advance that the Iraqi army would simply fold and disappear rather than fight? No. Could we have known in advance that Al Sadr would appear on the scene and attempt to lead a Shia uprising? No. Could we have known in advance that Al Qaeda and Iranian terrorists would pour across the borders to prevent democracy in Iraq? Yes, but that’s a good thing. It’s a draw play, to use a football analogy. Should we have immediately smashed the terrorist occupation of Fallujah? I don’t know, and neither does Andrew, but there is certainly evidence that the restrained approach that is being taken is the right one. Did we send enough troops to do the job? I have no idea and neither does Andrew. That question has many variables, such as, how many troops need to be held in reserve for other contingencies in the world, and other strategic and tactical, military and political considerations that are beyond my meager knowledge and understanding, and Andrew’s as well.
One thing that was undoubtedly predictable is that things would be very messy in Iraq post-invasion, that the transition to democracy would be fraught with unforeseen and unforeseeable difficulties. How this will all play out is anybody’s guess at this point. Discussing, questioning, and criticizing what is going on in Iraq is a good thing to do. Hyperbolically assuming the worst is not. This is war. This is the Middle East. It is inevitable that there will be plenty of grist for the mill of those who wish to undermine the effort there. When I read Sullivan these days, I can’t help but conclude, to mix metaphors, that he has a personal axe to grind.