My cousin Andy thinks it was a draw (see comment on previous post). it looks to me like the Iraqi Army came out slightly ahead, but what do I know? The New York Times has reported it as more like a defeat than a draw. Draw, slight victory, slight defeat, in any case it looks like the government of Iraq is closer to having a monopoly of force against Iranian-backed militias in their country than does the government of Lebanon against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in that hapless country.
Lebanon is an example of a situation to Iran’s liking, is it not? If they can achieve a similar situation in Iraq, controlling a private army stronger than the national army, that would also be to their liking. Now that what is left of Al Qaeda is on the run in the North, thanks to the Sunni awakening (cheap at the price), it is time to deal with the Mahdi Army and other gangster Shia outfits in the South. Iran is experimenting, trying to figure out which one of the militias to christen (er, uh, designate) as their private army in Iraq. It is in the interest of the United States to prevent the creation of another Lebanon in the Middle East. This, it seems to me, is the game board.
If Sadr had thought he was winning, he wouldn’t have unilaterally told his boys to go home. If Maliki thought he was winning, he wouldn’t have let them. Nevertheless, it is now Iraqi troops who are patrolling Basra, not the Mahdi Army or other militias.
Yes, yes, I know. This is all George Bush’s fault. If only Saddam were still in power, everything would be so much better. Maybe so, but that is beside the point now. As we slog forward, this latest development looks to me like a necessary milestone on the way to disbanding the Shia militias. If that can be accomplished as thoroughly as the defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq has been accomplished, the monopoly of force will have been largely achieved. Big ifs I realize, but that has to be the goal, does it not? And haven’t there already been a number of big ifs that actually panned out?
The Democrats have already warned General Petraeus not to say anything good about Iraq in his upcoming testimony. “I hope we don’t hear any glorification of what happened in Basra,” said Pelosi. The audacity of hope. I pray her hopes for Iraq are dashed.