Post-election Reality

American casualties in Iraq are now 2,863, approximately the death toll resulting from drunk driving in the U.S. in a 20 day period. If the result of the Baker Commission voodoo and the Democratically controlled Congress lead to a “phased redeployment” from Iraq, a very clear message will have been sent to all of our enemies and allies (hard to tell the difference sometimes) around the world. To wit, if you can kill a couple of thousand American soldiers, you can force the retreat of the United States. That is not a high bar. A steady supply of IEDs and a few thousand fanatical cadres can accomplish that anywhere, and, after Iraq, the number of American casualties required will undoubtedly be down-sized. Talk about asymmetrical warfare! The entire U.S. military power can be held hostage with a few million dollars and an ideology, resources that Iran has in quantity. Well, we tried really hard, but It’s been six months since the first democratic election in Iraq’s history, and Iraq still doesn’t look like New Hampshire. Obviously our only option is to figure out how to leave.

The intention of the attack on 9/11 was to take us out of the game. It didn’t work. Killing civilians in Spain can swing an election, but killing American civilians seems to just make them fight back. That’s why there have been no more attacks on American soil since. Our enemies are crazy, but they’re not stupid. Killing American soldiers, however, is a different matter. That seems to work really well. So the focus has shifted from New York to Iraq.

“So what?”, you may say. “How can a few thousand fanatics with IEDs be an existential threat to the United States of America? Let Iraq stew in its own juice. A pox on the House of Saud and all the other Middle East houses.” Iran will soon have nuclear warheads to set atop the missiles they have purchased from North Korea. Iran, majority Shia, borders on Iraq, majority Shia. Iran, and their client Hezbollah in Lebanon, have announced their intention to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. If we leave Iraq, we will be back in Iraq, but by then the situation will have gotten much worse, as it did after we retreated from Gulf War I.

The Democratic leadership, pre-election, called for the closing of Guantanamo, the repeal of the Patriot Act, requiring the NSA to get warrants to wiretap terrorists, and the “phased redeployment” of American troops from Iraq. Of course none of the newly elected freshman Democratic representatives and senators campaigned for any of these unpopular policies. Will the Democratic leadership now introduce legislation along these lines? Hopefully, and probably, not. What will they do then? Demanding Rumsfeld’s resignation is no longer enough to establish one’s credentials with the anti-war crowd. The election is over. Rumsfeld is gone. The generals have spoken. We need more troops in Iraq, not less.