Looks like Iraq may be sliding into civil war. Hezbollah is making their bid to overthrow the legitimate government of Lebanon, under the pretense of defending Lebanon from the evil Jews. This is really a Lebanese civil war, with several external participants. Of course there is Sudan. If some deus ex machina were to descend on Iran, overthrow the mullahs, and institute democracy, can there be any doubt that a well-armed militia would be formed by the theocracy’s fanatic supporters? And we would have another civil war in the Middle East. The mullahs may be unpopular, but they’re not that unpopular. If democracy were to come to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, they would either elect the Islamists outright, or they would be facing a civil war. The entire Middle East is one big potential and actual civil war, that has been held in check for decades by the imposition of fascist dictatorships, with U.S. backing. During that time, the Islamists have only grown stronger and more united and better-armed and organized. It is difficult to think of an Arab country that would not slide into civil war, if it were to become a democracy. Kuwait and a few others possibly.
There are two civil wars in the Middle East. The first is the struggle between the radical Sunni and the radical Shia for leadership of the Jihad. This has been all but decided now in favor of Iran and the Shia. The other coming civil war will be between the Jihad and everybody else in the Middle East. The Jihadists are in the minority, but they are an organized military force and everybody else is not. So the Jihad will win, unless the U.S. utterly destroys them, on behalf of everybody else. We would then have to equip and train their military and police forces, and help them in other ways, until they got on their feet as a functioning democracy, without an armed milita trying to overthrow them. Sound familiar? Iraq is just the beginning. And we are just beginning to realize what a messy, daunting task it is.
What’s the alternative? We could get the Hell out of the Middle East, and just let them discuss among themselves. But if we do this, the end result of the bloody civil war that would erupt, would likely be the entire Middle East in the control of the Islamists, led by Iran, armed with nuclear weapons.
Is there some other option? Am I missing something?